Despite Lebanon’s presidential deadlock having been resolved with the election of Michel Aoun, there’s little sign of respite from political stalemate for the country’s citizens writes Sahar Ghoussoub.
Barely a month after the election of Michel Aoun as president of Lebanon signalled the end of the presidential vacuum, the political paralysis that has gripped the country for almost three years has yet to come to an end.
On October 13, 1990, Michel Aoun was sent into exile. Twenty-six years later, on October 31, 2016, he was elected president, ending Lebanon’s 29-month paralysing power vacuum. This came after 45 futile presidential election sessions at parliament, with MPs extending their legislative mandate twice.
The president seems to have his work cut out to find common ground for all political components and to distance Lebanon from the turmoil of the region.
To ascend to the presidency Aoun had to strike a deal with Saad al-Hariri, his opponent-turned-ally, who promised to endorse him for the presidency in return for the latter to return to premiership of a government that has yet to be formed.
Aoun, the ex-army commander, also had a trump card – the support of Hezbollah. In fact, Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) back in 2006 with the organisation, which played a major role in helping him secure a majority of votes in the parliament, as did a second MoU signed along the same lines in June 2015 with previous arch-enemy the Lebanese Forces, headed by former opponent Samir Geagea.
This agreement was welcomed by many Lebanese people. Assaad Geitani, an executive at Levant International, believes that as president Aoun will have a chance to reduce “rampant corruption”. “He is a strong president in terms of his great popularity in the Lebanese street and his major bloc in parliament. I truly believe he has the power to make a real change.”
After only one month in office, Aoun seems to be struggling with his first political challenge.
But the reality on the ground tells a different story. After only one month in office, Aoun seems to be struggling with his first political challenge as rivals dig in, refusing to compromise on the distribution of key ministerial portfolios. Hezbollah has sent a clear message to the designated prime minister that no government will be formed without the Marada Movement, a Christian ally to the Shia party.
Meanwhile, Aoun is currently seeking to form an all-embracing government to represent the country’s political components, after striking deals with different rivals across the national spectrum to advance his reform plan, believes one Lebanese media figure with close ties to Aoun who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the issue. “We hope that the government will see the light of day sooner rather than later.”
However, Aoun has another challenge to face as the situation at home appears gloomier with the raging war in neighbouring Syria, the controversial involvement of Hezbollah in the fighting, the influx of Syrian refugees to Lebanon, and the refugee camps scattered all over the country. “Aoun’s ascension to the presidency amidst the remarkable developments in the region, mainly the battles to take over Aleppo and the repercussions of this fighting, indicates that Lebanon is being readied to be fused into the so-called ‘useful Syria’,” believes Samuel Menassa, a prominent Lebanese journalist and political analyst close to Kataeb Party, another Christian party.
“The latter would include Aleppo, Damascus and its airport, as well as the Syrian coastline, which are the areas under the control of the Syrian regime with the support of Moscow, Tehran and a mixture of Shiite militias, namely Lebanon’s Hezbollah.”
But this idea is brushed aside by the source close to Aoun. “This is far-fetched speculation,” the media figure counters. “Michel Aoun is Lebanese par excellence. He fought against Syria when it was controlling Lebanon. However, once the Syrian army withdrew, he forged new relations with the Syrian regime.”
Although some Lebanese pundits argue that Aoun is a strong president who could bring change in the country, despite the fact that the powers granted to the Lebanese president are limited according to the Taif Agreement, the president seems to have his work cut out to find common ground for all political components and to distance Lebanon from the turmoil of the region. The political play by which Aoun was elected president is proving to have been futile, sending the country spiralling back towards greater division.